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By Ross Moyo
Zimbabwe’s economy is set to grow by 4,9% according to a Global research firm, the British multinational and unit of UK-headquartered Fitch Solutions, which projects and signals the huge potential for growth in Zimbabwe this year, with other multilateral institutions seeing higher growth, perhaps as high as 6,2 percent.
African Development Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are among Multilateral lenders who have already projected that Zimbabwe would register the same growth this year, between 5 percent and 6,2 percent.
BMI’s head of global operational risk research, gave the company’s forecast on Wednesday at the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) Business and Economic Outlook Symposium for 2025.
The Global economic research firm BMI has projected Zimbabwe’s economy to ,”grow by 4,9 percent this year, driven by the strong recovery of agriculture, increased investments in mining and accelerated public infrastructure development.”
BMI’s head of global operational risk research, Chiedza Madzima, gave the company’s forecast on Wednesday at the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) Business and Economic Outlook Symposium for 2025.
Finance and Economic Development Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube forecast the economy to expand by 6 percent this year, partly driven by agriculture after the El Nino-induced drought weighed down growth last year.
Zimbabwe was projected to have registered slower growth of 2 percent last year from 5,3 percent the prior year. Even though agriculture saw a decline in output, rising output and value in other sectors including mining, tourism and manufacturing compensated resulting in positive growth.
Zimbabwe’s Growth is expected to pick up pace, one of the fastest in Africa, driven by the success of the 2024-25 summer cropping season following the good rains received across the country.
Madzima said Zimbabwe’s economy would also benefit from expected strong gold output, amid rising prices on the international markets, propelled by the projected 12,8 percent expansion in agricultural output.
As indicated by the Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency(zida), growing investments across the country would also drive accelerated growth.
Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe is on record as saying that planned investments in the mining sector were expected to surpass US$600 million, primarily driven by new lithium projects.
Madzima also said Zimbabwe’s lithium output was expected to grow by 75 percent this year, while platinum group metals production was seen up by 7 percent.
Potential long-term projects like the Zim Cyber City and the Mapinga Mines to Energy Industrial Park into which foreign investors are expected to put US$13 billion, are also expected to drive faster economic growth this year.
Madzima noted that the country’s net financial accounts had been on a positive trajectory over the past three years, driven by growing foreign investment coming from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), China and South Africa.
“Improving weather conditions will facilitate a recovery in agriculture, which means recovery in household incomes and electricity supply in the coming quarters, but our growth projection is 4,9 percent, which is below the government’s projection of six percent.
“Investment will strengthen in 2025 as we have seen strong growth in the issuance of licenses by ZIDA, and the Government capex is recovering in line with the budget projections.
“Lithium output is expected to grow by 75 percent this year, PGM’s net is going to be up by seven percent, gold by four percent. Of course, on the agric side, the Government expects agricultural production to peak by around 12,8 percent.
“So all this signals quite a positive trajectory for Zimbabwe’s current account and its net export position,” Ms Madzima said.
Despite positive projections, she noted potential impediments to Zimbabwe’s economy, saying the country’s currency challenges could hinder growth if unchecked.
Authorities have already rolled out several policy measures to stabilise the economy, including adopting tight monetary and fiscal positions, which are already paying dividends amid growing exchange rate stability and falling inflation.
Madzima also said that although Zimbabwe saw a slight increase in foreign currency reserves in 2024, its external position remained susceptible to unforeseen challenges from global economic volatility.
“Foreign currency challenges will continue to be an issue within the country, still tight financial conditions, very high interest rates will keep private consumption growth rather muted, and there is a stronger need for fiscal consolidation. Of course, this will limit a sharp uptick in Government spending,” she said.
World Bank senior country economist for Zimbabwe, Victor Steenbergen, weighed in saying sustaining steady and consistent economic growth was crucial for Zimbabwe to achieve its ambitious goal of transitioning into an upper-middle-income economy by 2030.
The World Bank boss emphasised that the private sector played a vital role in Zimbabwe’s economy, as it was the primary driver of employment and contribution to GDP.
“Achieving consistent and sustainable economic growth is a key to Zimbabwe’s goal to become an upper-middle economy. The role of the private sector is critical in this as it is the largest employer, the largest contributor to GDP, and the largest source of tax revenue.
“Despite multiple challenges over the past several decades, Zimbabwe’s private sector demonstrates strong resilience and has significant potential in the short term,” Mr Steenbergen said.
The annual gathering brought together industry leaders, business executives, economic and market analysts, and policymakers to assess the country’s economic situation and the dynamics shaping the business environment in 2025 and beyond.
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